There Will Be A Fourth Wave

As we head into April there have been rumours flying around about whether or not the cases will pick up again. Lockdown fatigue is setting as Ireland almost completes three months of a third complete lockdown. The rules and guidelines set out in Level 5 have long been broken by most. Large crowds gather for drinking sessions in the sunshine on the Dublin Canals. Kids travel around shops and villages in gangs on bikes. Social distancing is out the window and social mixing is back. So when will the cases pick up again?

It is only a matter of time before the government relaxes restrictions. with announcements coming in that household mixing, sports activities and construction will resume in and around mid-April, cases will almost certainly increase again. But, will it matter?

The case metric is becoming more and more outdated. After all the only reason Ireland endures such a tough lockdown compared to other countries is because our health system is so far over capacity, even pre-pandemic level hospital beds were at capacity.

It should be no surprise to anyone that during a pandemic our health system was going to fail us and fail us it has. People have missed cancer treatments and screening, to fatal consequences. We have all endured a long and tough lockdown to try to save as many people as we can, to keep the hospitals as far off capacity as possible. The main concern going forward should be will we learn from our mistakes in the past? Will we create larger hospitals with increased constant capacity or will be remain the same, completely vulnerable to another pandemic and a lockdown destroying our economy to save our lives?

There will be a fourth wave, in terms of cases at least, but it won't be as large as the one we had in December/January. It will most likely be similar to the one we had last year. If anyone can still remember our first wave, it was much smaller than the two that followed it. Spring is here and the virus will decrease in numbers going into the summer as it is seasonal.

We must still stick to the restrictions and stay the course, there is a high possibility that this is the last lockdown ease of restrictions we could have. The introduction of a vaccine gives us the possibility of wiping out the deadliness of the virus all together. Cases will increase but the numbers in hospital may not. This is hope. We can't wait to get back to normal. Stay the course and we will!